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SPEECH BY
MR RAYMOND LIM, MINISTER FOR TRANSPORT AND SECOND
MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS, AT THE
VISIT TO KALLANG-PAYA LEBAR EXPRESSWAY ENSURING
SMOOTH FLOWING ROADS KPE to
Open by September 2008 1.
It is a
pleasure to join you this morning at the Kallang-Paya
Lebar Expressway (KPE) Operations Control Centre for
an update on KPE Phase 2. The KPE
project team has worked very hard and made good progress. I am pleased to announce that the full KPE will
be opened on Building Roads for the Future 2.
Beyond
short-term needs, our priority is to continue investing for the future. The
$2.5 billion Marina Coastal Expressway (MCE) is on track for completion by
2013. A key expressway supporting the
development of the 3.
Indeed, when
it comes to investing for growth, we do not stand still. Following LTA’s
studies, the Government has given the go-ahead to build the North-South
Expressway or NSE by 2020 to cater to the projected growth in travel between
the northern and city areas. With the
21 km-long NSE,
4.
Besides these
billion-dollar road projects, the LTA will continue to improve roads across
Singapore, for example, widening the CTE and the Tampines
Expressway (TPE) to increase capacity and improving interchanges such as the
Woodsville Interchange to enhance connectivity and traffic flow. Likewise, intelligent transport solutions
such as the Expressway Monitoring and Advisory System or EMAS will be
expanded to optimise the use of our roads. 5.
However, increasing road capacity and deploying traffic engineering measures
will not in themselves guarantee smooth flowing roads. Additional lanes and new roads attract more
traffic and congestion soon returns. As
a Time Magazine writer put it, “traffic is like water; it oozes across
all available surface.” 6.
The insatiable
appetite for more cars has led to an uphill battle against gridlock in many
cities. In fast growing economies like
7.
Singaporeans likewise
desire to own cars and our policies, in particular, the use of Electronic
Road Pricing (ERP) to manage traffic, have made it possible for many
Singaporeans to do so. And so the vehicle
population has grown steadily to the 850,000 vehicles today. With rising
affluence, not only are more Singaporeans owning cars, they are also using them
more intensively. While the number of
cars increased by 10% between 1997 and 2004, the number of car trips increased
by 23%, more than double. 8.
The effects
are telling. Congestion levels have increased by about 25% since 1999, with
more roads congested during the peak hours. A December 2007 Singapore Business Review
article entitled “Gridlocked Nation” warned that “if 9.
Against our
ever growing appetite for car use, we are faced with the immutable realities
of 10.
There are
three inescapable conclusions from these observations. First, as more and more Singaporeans own cars,
it is clearly not possible for all of them to drive their cars to and from
work every day. The only way to move
large numbers of people efficiently in our densely populated city is by
public transport. It is therefore critical
that we make public transport much more attractive to the vast majority of Singaporeans,
including those who have access to cars. 11.
Second, the trade-offs
that we are faced with have become much sharper. The more cars Singaporeans
own, the more extensive ERP coverage and the higher the charges would have to
be. This is the key trade-off we have
to make, to maintain smooth flowing roads. 12.
Third, even
with more extensive ERP, the current vehicle growth rate of 3% is not
sustainable, given the already large vehicle population and the slowdown in
road growth. We have to lower vehicle
growth. 13.
These are not
easy issues but we have to make these difficult decisions and act decisively
to manage car growth and usage to ensure that Singaporeans will continue to
enjoy a quality living environment. (I)
Improving Public Transport 14.
First and
foremost, we are taking major steps to make public transport a choice mode of
travel. We will plan our bus and rail
network as an integrated system from the commuters’ perspective, with
more frequent services and seamless transfers. We will also spend billions of dollars to
double our rail network, enabling many more people to benefit from fast and
reliable MRT connections. These measures will transform our bus and rail
services, reduce journey times and increase comfort and convenience for
commuters. Beyond these, we will also make immediate improvements to public
transport – both bus and rail - so that people will have a good
alternative to cars. Let me begin with
the buses. Improving Bus Services 15.
Long waiting
times, long journey times and overcrowding are the three most common
complaints amongst bus commuters.
These are the same reasons that discourage more people from taking
public transport today. The bus
priority measures such as bus lanes which we are putting in by June 2008 will
help reduce waiting and journey times. These measures will help improve average bus
speeds to 20-25kph, up from today’s 16kph for feeder buses and 19kph
for trunk buses. In addition, we will: (i)
Increase
frequencies of basic bus services, including feeder services; (ii)
Allow basic
bus services to duplicate parts of the rail network; and (iii)
Expand premium
bus services to provide more choices. Increasing Frequencies of Basic Bus Services,
including Feeder Services 16.
To shorten bus
journey and waiting times, and reduce crowding, we will enhance the frequency
of basic bus services. In particular,
we will put priority on corridors affected by impending ERP expansion, where
the bus operators will increase the peak period frequency of all basic bus
services from 15 minutes to 12 minutes by June 2008 and 10 minutes by August 2009. 17.
Many commuters
use feeder bus services to connect to MRT stations and bus interchanges. To reduce their waiting time, we will
increase the frequency of feeder services.
Over and above the minimum frequencies which the Public Transport
Council (PTC) specifies for all bus services, the PTC will also be spelling
out a separate and higher Quality of Service (QoS)
standard for peak hour feeder bus services. The PTC will announce changes
after consultation with the public transport operators. 18.
The bus
operators will have to procure additional buses to run the trunk and feeder
bus services at higher frequencies. As
this will take time, LTA will in the interim, extend the statutory life span
of existing buses to expedite implementation.
Allowing Basic Bus Services to Duplicate Parts of
the Rail Network 19.
Today, trunk
buses are not allowed to run routes that are parallel to rail lines. This
avoids wasteful duplication of resources, which would increase the overall
cost of our public transport system.
However, LTA has reviewed and will relax this rule for the mature rail lines, namely the
North-South and East-West lines, where ridership is
high and the scope for expanding rail capacity quickly is limited. From June 2008, we will allow new bus
services to ply along the North-South and East West lines where there is
persistent heavy passenger loading during peak hours. For example, it will now be possible to have
a more direct bus that runs parallel to the North-South Line, from Ang Mo Kio to Expanding Premium Bus Services to Provide More
Choices 20.
We will also
expand premium bus services which provide more comfortable and direct
journeys. We currently have 42
services. We will work with the bus operators to increase the
number to at least 72 by June 2008, putting priority on routes affected by
ERP expansion. For example, premium bus services will provide direct
connections from residential areas such as Katong, Increasing Train Capacity 21.
Even as we
improve bus services, we will also increase the frequency and capacity of our
trains, for a more comfortable ride. 22.
I have mentioned in my earlier speech that
an immediate improvement is the addition of 93 train trips a week during the
morning and evening peak periods from February. For commuters, this will mean less crowded
trains and a reduction in waiting time by about 10-15% during peak hours. 23.
Further, as
part of LTA’s effort in revising the rail
Operating Performance Standards, more frequent services will be required
during peak time periods. For example,
commuters should only have to wait for about 2 to 3 minutes during the
morning peak-of-peaks when commuter volume is highest. During the lunch period, the frequency
would be improved to about 5 to 6 minutes, down from the current 7
minutes. LTA will work with the rail
operators to bring about these improvements. (II) Ensuring that ERP Remains Effective 24.
Besides vastly
improving public transport, we will also need to enhance our ERP system. As with putting in more roads and traffic
engineering measures, simply improving public transport on its own will not
solve the congestion problem. Of all the different measures to deal with
congestion, ERP is the only one that addresses the problem directly by
requiring individuals to take into account the costs of congestion caused by
their driving to others. Many other cities are coming to the same conclusion
that there is no choice but to introduce congestion charging on heavily used
roads. 25.
However, it is
a growing challenge to keep our roads smooth flowing. On the one hand, road growth is slowing; on
the other hand, we are packing more and more cars onto our roads. In the last ten years, the car population
grew by almost 40%, from 370,000 in 1997 to 515,000 today Coupled with this is the fact that our cars
are among the most intensively used in the world, averaging 21,000 km a year,
compared to 9,100 km in London, 13,900 km in Melbourne, and 19,800 km in
Chicago. Not surprisingly, all these
have resulted in the crowded roads and frequent peak hour congestion that we
see today. 26.
Our ERP system
has served us well, but it is coming under strain. We often hear feedback that ERP has not
helped to ease congestion on the highest demand roads like the CTE beyond a
temporary respite; that ERP rate increases have little impact on travel behaviour; and that even though people pay ERP, they
still face congestion on priced roads. There is some truth in this. The reason is that rising affluence has led
to a greater propensity to drive which in turn has caused a dramatic rise in
traffic volumes; so much so that the scale and intensity of traffic
congestion today is far different from what it was a decade ago. Increasingly, given the more pervasive
congestion today, the emphasis must be on encouraging motorists to shift to
public transport, rather than drive on alternative roads to their
destination. This is why the Government is spending billions of dollars to
improve our public transport system to make it a viable alternative to the
car. 27.
Further, our
ERP system has essentially remained unchanged since 1998. Hence, it is
critical that we review the ERP system and enhance it to better address
current and future traffic conditions. As a Thomson resident told me when I visited
the area recently, people are willing to pay ERP charges but they must see
the benefit from it. In other words,
the ERP system must be made more effective. LTA has studied the matter carefully and assessed
that, to manage congestion effectively, it is necessary to make the following
changes: (i) Refine the method
of measuring traffic speeds; (ii) Update the ERP rate structure; and (iii) Manage congestion in the
city area. Refine Method of Measuring
Traffic Speeds 28.
The optimal traffic
speed thresholds of 45 kph on our expressways and
20 kph for arterial roads have been set to ensure
smooth-flowing traffic. Yet, very often, motorists who pay ERP still find
themselves getting caught in slow traffic, and even experiencing “stop-start”
conditions, despite fine weather, and with no accident in sight. 29.
LTA did a traffic
study which found that the 45 kph and 20 kph threshold speeds which were set 10 years ago, are today
close to the point where traffic flow can deteriorate very rapidly to what
traffic engineers call the “unstable zone”, where
“stop-start” traffic conditions become common. When this happens, all it takes is a minor
disturbance in the traffic flow and the traffic speeds can drop quite
sharply. This is undesirable and we
need to create a buffer to ensure better traffic conditions. 30.
After careful
review, LTA has decided to address this problem by adopting a more
representative method of measuring actual traffic conditions for ERP rate
reviews, with speeds determined using the 85th percentile speed measurement
method. The 85th percentile speed measurement method is also an international
traffic engineering practice for assessing traffic conditions. 31.
The 85th
percentile speed measurement method will result in better driving conditions
for more motorists than the current methodology of using the average or mean
speed, as it ensures that 85% of motorists will experience speeds above the
threshold. The nature of averaging is
such that lower speed readings would be evened out by higher speed readings. Hence, even if the average speed on an
ERP-priced road is recorded as being above the threshold, the actual speeds
may well be lower than the threshold for a significant part of the time. For example, even though the average travelling speed on the PIE from 32.
Hence, LTA will
no longer use average travelling speeds to
determine ERP rate changes. Instead,
LTA will use the speed taken at the 85th percentile level. With this change, at least 85% of motorists
will be assured of smooth travel on ERP-priced roads. Update the ERP Rate Structure 33.
Traffic
volumes have increased substantially in the last few years. This has resulted in the need to make more
frequent rate changes on our ERP-priced roads and expressways, from 9 times
in 2006 to 25 times in 2007, based on the same number of gantries. Instead of resorting to so many small
adjustments, it would be more effective to make larger rate increments.
Indeed, many people have commented that the 50 cents rate increment has only
a temporary impact on driving behaviour as it is
not significant enough to cause people to change their travel behaviour. 34.
Therefore, for
ERP charges to remain effective in influencing motorists’ behaviour, LTA will raise the incremental ERP charge from
$0.50 to $1. In addition, the ERP base
charge, which is the starting charge for a new ERP gantry point, will be
increased from the current $1 to $2. These changes will improve the
effectiveness of the ERP system, so that each time ERP rates are adjusted,
motorists who still choose to drive on these roads would see a visible
improvement in traffic flows. Manage Congestion in the City Area 35.
City traffic
has been building up in the last few years. It is now much more congested in
and around the city. Compared to 5 years ago, speeds on major roads in the
CBD have fallen by more than 25%. For
example, five years ago, a motorist crossing the city from Bugis to 36.
LTA has
carefully studied the traffic situation and will introduce additional ERP
gantries in the city area in July 2008 to manage traffic more effectively. These
gantries will run roughly along the Phasing In the Changes 37.
The revised
speed measurement criteria and the new rates will be introduced from July
2008, only after the public transport improvements have been rolled out by
June 2008. These public transport measures will increase rail and bus
passenger capacity by 15,000 trips and 6,800 trips respectively during the
morning peak hours. These are more than sufficient to cater to the 6,000 passenger
car trips that LTA estimates may be affected by these ERP changes during that
period. 38.
LTA will phase
in the ERP changes, starting with the CBD and Orchard cordons in July as the
city area is a key priority. It will
then extend the new criteria and rates to other roads progressively with an
additional 6 new gantries put up to deal with peak hour congestion in November. This is to give time for people to adjust
their travel plans and allow for the impact of changes in the city area to
work its way through the rest of the road network. Hence, if as a result of the new ERP rates
in the city area, fewer motorists drive on the arterial roads and expressways
leading to the city, we may not need to adjust the ERP rates even with the
new criteria. LTA will give more
details of the new ERP gantries later. Vehicle Ownership Taxes to be Lowered 39.
With all these
changes to the ERP system, the expected increase in ERP revenue will be about $70 million a
year. In line with our policy to shift
progressively towards taxing on the basis of vehicle usage rather than
ownership, the Government will reduce road tax by 15% for all vehicles,
including taxis. I urge taxi operators to pass on the savings to taxi
drivers. This permanent road tax reduction will cost the Government about $110
million annually. It underlines the point that the higher ERP charge is to
address congestion and is not a revenue raising measure. If motorists were to drive less, the
Government would be happy to collect less ERP revenue. 40.
In addition, to
lower the upfront cost of car ownership, we will also reduce the Additional
Registration Fee (ARF) for cars, lowering the rates from 110% of Open Market
Value (OMV) to 100% of OMV with effect from March 2008. The Government will collect about $200 million
less annually. (III) Lower Vehicle Growth Rate 41.
Besides
enhancing the effectiveness of ERP, we will also need to lower the vehicle
growth rate. 42.
Every weekday
morning and evening, we feel the impact of our 850,000-strong vehicle
population on the roads. When I go to
dialogue sessions, I often get questions like “Don’t you think
there are too many cars on the roads?”
People tell me that it is not just the city areas that are getting
congested but also suburban areas like Serangoon
and Thomson, which they say get chock-a-block full of cars in the evenings.
One of the reasons for this increasing congestion is that in applying a 3%
growth rate to the current vehicle population base, we have been adding 25,000
vehicles onto the roads each year, compared to 16,000 vehicles back in 1990
when the Vehicle Quota System was introduced.
If we continue at a 3% growth rate, we would have enough vehicles,
packed bumper to bumper, to turn our entire road network into a giant car
park in the not too distant future. If we take into account that road growth
will go down to 0.5% a year, then clearly, the 3% vehicle growth rate is no
longer tenable. 43.
We will,
therefore, lower the vehicle population growth rate from the current 3% to 1.5%
from Quota Year 2009 (beginning in May 2009). We will review the growth rate after 3
years, and assess then whether a further reduction is necessary, in light of
the slowdown in road growth. Conclusion – Moving A Nation 44.
Quite a number of people have suggested to
me that I should just focus on improving the public transport system and
leave these tough car demand measures to the future. They argue that since we are making such
significant improvements to our public transport system, this should be
sufficient to deal with our congestion problems. I wish it were so. But unfortunately, I
know that it is not the case. The reason is that even if we free up some
roads because some motorists decide to switch to public transport, other
motorists will soon take their place, attracted by the smooth flowing traffic
and very soon, these roads will again be congested. So improving public
transport is necessary but not sufficient in itself to deal with
congestion. We need both –
public transport improvements and congestion measures. 45.
There is
always a tension between the individual’s personal interest in wanting unrestrained
driving and the social goal of a liveable city. We
have to decide whether as a people, we are willing to take hard decisions
that will benefit our country; or whether, we will, like many other cities,
postpone the necessary, store up the trouble and suffer future gridlock, with
the attendant costs to the economy and living environment. 46.
So we must
move – building up our public transport so that people will have a
viable alternative to the car and taking firm steps to curb excessive car
travel demand, so that all of us will enjoy a quality urban environment now
and into the future. |
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